More than halfway through the season the 2020 NSKA Angler Of the Year (AOY) race is taking shape – but with the ability to drop two events there is still a lot unknown and to be determined. Using some data and past history, we’ll attempt to determine the real contenders and see if we can say who will the AOY champion.
People often live in the moment, suffering from recency bias, meaning that a person most easily remembers something that’s happened recently compared to something that happens most often. We saw this with the recent Beaver Lake event where recency bias had most predicting mid-to-high 80s for the winning length when the average winning length on Beaver over time has been 79.50″ in recent years. Ryan Paskiewicz hit that number on the nose with…yep…79.50″.
Current 2020 Angler Of the Year Standings
The top 10 AOY contenders have many familiar names and also several new ones for 2020. Finishing in the Top 10 for the year is an achievement in one of the toughest kayak fishing clubs around. Looking at this list it would seem there are clear-cut contenders for the title.
This is great work by the Top 10 to this point in the season. Unfortunately this list will change, a lot, over the next two events.
Projected 2020 Angler Of the Year POTENTIAL
The key to AOY is the best five events, dropping two. The last two events will create a tremendous amount of movement in the standings as people replace either a bad event, or, a zero because they didn’t enter an event. Those with the biggest opportunity to move up are those who can drop bad scores and retain good scores.
Who has the most potential if you look at their best-case scenarios?
If you look at a scenario where each angler drops one bad event with a better score later in the year, here’s the Drop 1 Potential Top 10:
In this case where everyone may replace one score with a better one, Roy Roberts and Tyler Zengerle and Danny Dutton show the most benefit of potential upward movement.
In reality though, many in the Top 10 could wind up having two very good Beaver Lake tournaments and could add two good scores. So, who has the most potential if they can replace two of their current scores? Here’s the Drop 2 Potential Top 10:
This view begins to make it more clear who could benefit most from the ability to drop two events. John Wofford is the biggest mover, into the top tier with Dwain Batey, Justin Brewer and Roy Roberts. Devon Esry jumps into the Top 10 in this view.
These projections will NOT be accurate because there are many, many variables. However, it can tell us who really has a shot at AOY based on their remaining potential.
Predictions for Final AOY Champion
As we look at the numbers and potential above and combine it with the remaining tournament schedule of South Beaver Lake and North Beaver Lake, I’ve put together some thoughts on the contenders for 2020 Angler Of the Year and have put them in tiers.
In the Hunt
Almost everyone in the Top 10 is theoretically in the hunt for AOY if everything fell just right. So it’s important to recognize some of the guys in the models above who could win it if all of the chips fell just right: Devon Esry, Michael Burgess, Jason Coleman and Chris Needham. Some of these guys are new to the club and have had a great first season so far!
The Players
Dwain Batey, Justin Brewer, Roy Roberts and John Wofford are all legitimate threats to win AOY at this point and are separated by only THREE points in the Drop 2 Potential scenario. I expect all four of these to be in the mix for the final AOY title. Back to back NSKA AOY winner is in this tier because he is in striking distance and generally excels on Beaver Lake. He needs some stumbles though from the leaders to be a contender.
The Winner
All of these anglers mentioned in this article have had a great year on the water and have consistently put good fish on the board. Predicting the ultimate AOY from the “Players” now comes down to schedule on Beaver Lake. Here are their finishes on their Beaver Lake lake only events from the past three years:
- Cole Sikes – 2nd, 3rd, 9th, 11th, 12th
- Dwain Batey – 1st, 4th, 5th, 8th, 17th, 20th
- Justin Brewer – 5th, 13th, 16th, 16th, 24th
- Roy Roberts – 1st, 2nd, 5th, 19th, 20th, 36th
- Jon Wofford – 7th, 22nd
Cole and Dwain have been the most consistent in their finishes on Beaver Lake, but Cole may just be too far back at this point to catch up. Justin has had a hot start to the year and nobody is hotter over the past three events than Jon, but the numbers for them aren’t quite as strong on Beaver Lake. Roy has the best three finishes and is right there from a points perspective.
Based on all the data, and the final lakes, it seems AOY will come down to Roy and Dwain – with Dwain Batey winning by a razor-thin margin.
Of course, this is likely all not what will happen because, hey, it’s fishing.